Ravanshenasi Wa Din, Volume 18, Issue 3, No 71, Year 2025 , Pages 69-94

    A Process Model of Future-Oriented Thinking in Adolescents Aged 12-16 Based on Grounded Theory

    Article Type: 
    Research
    Writers:
    Navid Khakbazan / Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, University of Religions and Denominations / n.khakbazan@urd.ac.ir
    ✍️ Milad Shabani / MA in Psychology, Imam Khomeini Educational and Research Institute / milad.shabanipsy@gmail.com
    Pages: 69-94 Receive Date: 2025/12/03 Accept Date: 2025/12/03
    dor 20.1001.1.20081782.1404.18.3.5.4
    doi 10.22034/ravanshenasi.2025.2021636
    Abstract: 
    This qualitative study aimed to identify the psychological components influencing the formation of future-oriented thinking in adolescents and to develop a process model using a grounded theory methodology, following the systematic approach of Strauss and Corbin. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 17 adolescents aged 12-16 at cultural centers in Qom. Participants were selected via theoretical sampling until theoretical saturation was achieved. Data analysis proceeded through open, axial, and selective coding phases, with the validity of findings established through member checking and peer audit. The results indicated that future-oriented thinking is shaped by three categories of factors: interactive (environmental role, lived experiences, needs), cognitive (cognitive capabilities, beliefs), and motivational (motives, preferences, criteria, values). The core category emerging from the analysis was "aspiration." The resulting paradigm model provides a coherent framework, outlining causal conditions (values, needs, motivations), contextual conditions (environment, lived experiences), intervening conditions (cognitive capabilities, beliefs), strategies (planning), and consequences (realization of motives, need fulfillment). This model can serve as a foundation for educational and clinical interventions focused on future orientation during adolescence.
    Keywords: 
    future_oriented thinking
    grounded theory
    aspiration
    adolescence
    process model
    چکیده و کلیدواژه فارسی (Persian)
    Title :مدل فرایندی تفکر آینده‌نگر در نوجوانان 12ـ16 ساله بر پایۀ نظریۀ داده‌بنیاد
    Abstract: 
    پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی مؤلفه‌های روان‌شناختی تأثیرگذار بر شکل‌گیری تفکر آینده‌نگر در نوجوانان و تدوین مدلی فرایندی در چارچوب نظریۀ داده‌بنیاد انجام شد. این مطالعه از نوع کیفی بوده و با استفاده از رویکرد نظام‌مند استراوس و کوربین طراحی گردید. داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با ۱۷ نوجوان ۱۲ـ۱۶ ساله در بستر کانون‌های فرهنگی قم گردآوری شد. مشارکت‌کنندگان با روش نمونه‌گیری نظریه‌ای و بر اساس اصل اشباع نظری انتخاب شدند. تحلیل داده‌ها در سه مرحلۀ کدگذاری باز، محوری و انتخابی انجام شد و اعتبار یافته‌ها از طریق تطبیق با اعضا و ممیزی توسط همکاران تأیید گردید. نتایج نشان داد تفکر آینده‌نگر بر پایۀ سه دسته عامل شکل می‌گیرد: عوامل تعاملی (نقش محیط، تجارب زیسته، نیازها)، عوامل شناختی (توانمندی‌های شناختی، باورها) و عوامل انگیزشی (انگیزه‌ها و تمایلات، ملاک‌ها و ارزش‌ها). مقولۀ «آرزومداری» به‌عنوان پدیدۀ مرکزی (مقولۀ هسته) در مدل استخراج شد. مدل پارادایمی حاصل، با ترسیم شرایط علّی (ارزش‌ها و ملاک‌ها، نیاز‌ها و انگیزه‌ها)، زمینه‌ای (محیط و تجارب زیسته)، واسطه‌ای (توانمندی‌های شناختی باورها)، راهبرد (برنامه‌ریزی) و پیامدهای روان‌شناختی (تحقق انگیزه‌ها و برآورده شدن نیازها)، چارچوبی منسجم برای فهم سازوکارهای تفکر آینده‌نگر در نوجوانان ارائه می‌دهد. این مدل می‌تواند زمینه‌ساز مداخلات آموزشی و بالینی مبتنی‌بر آینده‌نگری در دورۀ نوجوانی باشد.
    Keywords: 
    تفکر آینده‌نگر
    نظريۀ داده‌بنياد
    آرزومداري
    نوجواني
    مدل فرايندي
    References: 
    • بیابانگرد، اسماعیل (1386). روش‌های تحقیق در روان‌شناسی و علوم تربیتی. تهران: دوران.
    • رفیعی‌هنر، حمید (1397). درآمدی بر روان‌شناسی آرزوها با رویکرد اسلامی. قم: دارالحدیث.
    • لطف‌آبادی، حسین (1388). روش‌شناسی پژوهش در روان‌شناسی و علوم تربیتی. تهران: پژوهشگاه حوزه و دانشگاه.
    • فیست، گرگوری و فیست، جس (1390). نظریه‌های شخصیت. ترجمۀ یحیی سیدمحمدی. تهران: روان.
    • کشاورز، سوسن (1386). مفاهیم آینده‌نگر در اسلام و آثار تربیتی آنها. دانشگاه تربیت معلم، (2)، 131ـ162.
    • گاردنر، هوارد (1393). هوش چندگانه گاردنر. ترجمۀ حمیدرضا بلوچ. تهران: آسمان نیلگون.
    • محمدپور، احمد (1389). روش در روش (دربارۀ ساخت معرفت در علوم انسانی). تهران: جامعه‌شناسان.
    References: 
    • Acar, Z. & Kaya, S. (2024). Identifying Psychological and Contextual Factors Influencing Teenagers' Future Orientation. Journal of Adolescent and Youth Psychological Studies, 5(4), 158-166.
    • Addis, D. R., Wong, A. T. & Schacter, D. L. (2008). Age-related changes in the episodic simulation of future events. Psychological Science, 19, 33-41.
    • Anderman, Eric M., Anderman, Lynley H., Griesinger, Tripp (1999). The Relation of Present and Possible Academic Selves during Early Adolescence to Grade Point Average and Achievement Goals. The Elementary School Journal, 100(1), 3-17.
    • Arinata, Z. (2023). The Implementation Ini Genting on Adolescent Use Promoting Stunting in Batang Regency.
    • Aspinwall. L. G. (2006). The Psychology of Future-Oriented ThinkingFrom Achievement to Proactive Coping, Adaptation, and Aging. Motivation and Emotion, 29(4), 203-235. 
    • Association of Bible. Colleges Member Instutions. A Dissertation Doctor.
    • Atance, C. M. & O’Neill, D. K. (2001). Episodic future thinking. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 5, 533-539.
    • Bandura, A. (1982). Self-efficacy mechanism in human agency. American Psychologist, 37, 122–147.
    • Beck, A. T., Weissman, A., Lester, D. & Trexler, L. (1974). The measurement of pessimism:The Hopelessness Scale. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 42, 861-865.
    • Bélanger, M. J. , Atance, C. M., Varghese, A. L. , Nguyen, V. & Vendetti, C. (2014). What will I like best when I’m all grown up? Preschoolers’ understanding of future preferences. Child Development, 85, 2419–2431.
    • Boyer, P. (2008). Evolutionary economics of mental time travel? Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 12, 219-224.
    • Buckner, R. L. & Carroll, D. C. (2007). Self-projection and the brain. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 11, 49-57.
    • Busby, J. & Suddendorf, T. (2005). Making decisions with the future in mind:Developmental and comparative identification of mental time travel. Learning & Motivation, 36, 110-125.
    • Carver, C. S. & Scheier, M. F. (1990). Principles of self-regulation:Action and emotion. In R. M. Sorrentino & E. T. Higgins (Eds. ), Handbook of motivation and cognition:Foundations of social behavior (Vol. 2, p. 3-52). New York:Guilford Press.
    • Carver, C. S. & Scheier, M. F. (Eds) (1998). On the self-regulation of behavior. New York:CambridgeUniversity Press.
    • Creswell, J. W. (2007). Qualitative Inquiry & Reasearch Design, Second Edition, California:Sage Publication Ltd.
    • D. (1987). A Studies of Faculty Development Programs in American.
    • D’Argembeau A. & Mathy, A. (2011). Tracking the construction of episodic future thoughts. Journal of Experimental Psychology. 140, 258-271.
    • D’Argembeau, A., ORTOLEVA, C., JUMENTIER, S. & VAN DER LINDEN, M. (2010), Component processes underlying future thinking. Memory & Cognition, 38(6), 809-819.
    • Du, J. (2024). A Study on the Impact of Douyin on the Adolescent's Self-Shaping. Communications in Humanities Research, 26(1), 102-106.
    • Fortunato, V. J. & Furey, J. T. (2011). The theory of MindTime:The relationships between future, past, and present thinking and psychological well-being and distress. Personality and Individual Differences, 50(1), 20-24.
    • Frank, L. K. (1939). Time perspectives. Journal of Social Philosophy, 4, 293-312.
    • Frederick, S. (2003). Time preference and personal identity. In G. Loewenstein, D. Read, & R. Baumeister (Eds), Time and decision: Economic and psychological perspectives on intertemporal choice (p. 89-113). New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.
    • Gott, C. & Lah, S. (2014). Episodic future thinking in children compared to adolescents. Child Neuropsychology, 20(5), 625-640.
    • Gray, H. F. (2024). How India Can Support Teenage Girls’ Mental Wellbeing via Inclusion of Park Planning Through Digital Engagement. The Journal of Public Space, 9(2), 129-146.
    • Hallford, D. J. & D’Argembeau, A. (2022). Why we imagine our future: Introducing the functions of future thinking scale (FoFTS). Journal of Psychopathology and Behavioral Assessment, 44(3), 376-395.
    • Israeli, N. (1930). Some aspects of the social psychology of futurism. Journal of Abnormaland Social Psychology, 25, 121-132.
    • Israeli, N. (1936a). The psychology of prediction: Judgments relating of the past and future. Psychological Exchange, 4, 129-132.
    • Israeli, N. (1936b). Abnormal personality and time. New York, NY: R.M. McBride & Co. Pu.
    • Johnson, S. R., Blum, R. W. & Cheng, T. L. (2014). Future orientation: a construct with implications for adolescent health and wellbeing. International journal of adolescent medicine and health, 26(4), 459-468.
    • Lewin, K. (1939). Field theory and experiment in social psychology. American Journal of Sociology, 44, 868-896.
    • Lewin, K. (1942/1948). Time perspective and morale. In K. Lewin (Ed.), Resolving social
    • LYU, Houchao & Huang, Xiting. (2016). Development and validation of Future Time Perspective Scale for Adolescents and Young Adults. Time & Society. 25.
    • Mahy, C. E., Moses, L. J. & Kliegel, M. (2014). The development of prospective memory in children:An executive framework. Developmental Review, 34, 305-326.
    • Manzanilla, F. E., Escultura, F. N., Buquid, M. A. T. & Cabreros, M. R. Q. (2024). Driving Factors and Challenges of Adolescents in Teenage Pregnancy. Jhes, 1(2), 20-32.
    • Mazachowsky, T. R. & Mahy, C. E. V. (2020). Constructing the Children’s Future Thinking Questionnaire:A reliable and valid measure of children’s future-oriented cognition, Developmental Psychology, 56(4), 756-772.
    • Moffitt, T. E., Arseneault, L., Belsky, D., Dickson, N., Hancox, R. J., Harrington, H., Caspi, A. (2011). A gradient of childhood self-control predicts health, wealth, and public safety. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 2693-2698.
    • Nurfazriah, I., Nurhayati, A., Irianti, S., Suriani, S. & Mathofani, P. E. (2024). The Effect of Education With the Adolescent Reproductive Health Module on Increasing Peer Counselors' Knowledge About Family Life Planning in Pelamunan Village. Ajesh, 3(2), 246-255.
    • Nurmi, J. (1991). How do adolescents see their future? A review of the development of future orientation and planning. Developmental Review, 11(1), 1-59.
    • Nurmi, Jari-Erik (1989). Development of Orientation to the Future during Early Adolescence:A Four-Year Longitudinal Study and Two Cross-Sectional Comparisons. International Journal of Psychology. 24(1-5), 195-214.
    • O'Keefe, Victoria M.; Wingate, Laricka R. (2013). The Role of Hope and Optimism in Suicide Risk for American Indians/Alaska Natives. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior. 43(6), 621-33.
    • Osvath. O. & Martin-Ordas, G. (2014). The future of future-oriented cognition in non-humans:theory and the empirical case of the great apes. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 369(1655), 1-8.
    • Peterson, C. & Seligman, M. E. P. (2004). Character strengths and virtues: A handbook and classification. Oxford University Press; American Psychological Association.
    • Robbins, Reuben N.; Bryan, Angela (2004). Relationships Between Future Orientation, Impulsive Sensation Seeking, and Risk Behavior among Adjudicated Adolescents. Journal of Adolescent Research. 19(4):428-445.
    • Safta, C. G. & Suditu, M. (2024). Responsible Decision-Making in Teenagers - A Prerequisite for Career Success. Journal of Educational Sciences & Psychology, 14(76) (1), 28-33.
    • Schacter, D. L., Addis, D. R. & Buckner, R. L. (2008). Episodic simulation of future events:Concepts, data, and applications. In A. Kingstone & M. B. Miller (Eds. ), The year in cognitive neuroscience 2008 (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 1124, p. 39-60). New York:New York Academy of Sciences.
    • Seftina, D., Aji, R. I. & Nisa, D. A. (2024). Character Design for Educational Illustration Books in Knowing Visual Communication Design. Journal of Visual Communication Design, 9(2), 227-244.
    • Seginer, R. (2023). Future orientation: Where there is a will there is a way. In S. Mozes & M. Israelashvili (Eds.), Youth without family to lean on: Global challenges and local interventions (p. 59-74). Routledge.
    • Seginer, Rachel (2000). Defensive Pessimism and Optimism Correlates of Adolescent Future Orientation:A Domain-Specific Analysis. Journal of Adolescent Research. 15(3), 307-326.
    • Seginer, Rachel (2005). Adolescent Future Orientation:Intergenerational Transmission and Intertwining Tactics in Cultural and Family Settings. In Friedlmeier, Wolfgang;_Chakkarath, Pradeep; Schwarz, Beate (eds.). Culture and Human Development:The Importance of Cross-Cultural Research for the Social Sciences. Hoboken:Taylor & Francis.
    • Seginer, Rachel (2009). Future orientation:Developmental and ecological perspectives. New York: Springer.
    • Silva, F. A. d. , Lima, D. D., Quaresma, M., Luis Felipe da Silva, M. , Suignard, J. L. S., Vieira, L. B. M., Amorim, M. F. P., & Andrade, A. C. (2024). Conscious Adolescence. Health and Society, 4(04), 31-51.
    • Silverman, D. (2005). Doing Qualitative Research. London:Sage Publication.
    • Steel, P. Schmidt, J. & Shultz, J. (2008). Refining the Relationship between .
    • Strauss, A. & Corbin, J. (1998). Basics of Qualitative Research:Techniques and Procedures for Developing Grounded Theory. Newbury Park, CA:Sage Publications.
    • Suddendorf, T. & Corballis, M. C. (1997). Mental time travel and the evolution of the human mind. Genetic, Social, & General Psychology Monographs, 123, 133-167.
    • Suhendar, S., Widodo, A., Solihat, R., & Riandi, R. (2025). Students’ future thinking skills: Implications for school education programs. Journal of Pedagogical Research, 9(1), 254-273.
    • Szpunar, K. K. (2010). Episodic future thought:An emerging concept. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 5, 142-162. 
    • 85 reads
    Cite this article: RIS Mendeley BibTeX APA MLA HARVARD VANCOUVER

    APA | MLA | HARVARD | VANCOUVER

    Khakbazan, Navid, Shabani, Milad.(2025) A Process Model of Future-Oriented Thinking in Adolescents Aged 12-16 Based on Grounded Theory. Ravanshenasi Wa Din, 18(3), 69-94 https://doi.org/10.22034/ravanshenasi.2025.2021636

    APA | MLA | HARVARD | VANCOUVER

    Navid Khakbazan; Milad Shabani."A Process Model of Future-Oriented Thinking in Adolescents Aged 12-16 Based on Grounded Theory". Ravanshenasi Wa Din, 18, 3, 2025, 69-94

    APA | MLA | HARVARD | VANCOUVER

    Khakbazan, N, Shabani, M.(2025) 'A Process Model of Future-Oriented Thinking in Adolescents Aged 12-16 Based on Grounded Theory', Ravanshenasi Wa Din, 18(3), pp. 69-94

    APA | MLA | HARVARD | VANCOUVER

    Khakbazan, N, Shabani, M. A Process Model of Future-Oriented Thinking in Adolescents Aged 12-16 Based on Grounded Theory. Ravanshenasi Wa Din, 2025; 18(3): 69-94